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One of the cornerstones of the 'liberal' political view is that conservatives are mistaken in which political policy -- tax cuts or increased taxes -- help the poor. Hahahahahaha! *Whew!* Sorry, I crack me up! The above sentence assumed that conservatives might have good motives and be honestly but sincerely mistaken! Absurd, I know! Let's try it again... One of the cornerstones of the 'liberal' political view is that conservatives favor the rich and hate the poor, preferring, if possible, to grind their bones into meal for their flour. Well, that's a bit of an overstatement now, but it gets closer to the point: To the "religious left", conservatives are not merely mistaken -- but are sinful, ignore Jesus, and don't care about the poor. Example (bold mine):
(Who says liberals don't 'moralize'? And this example was fairly mild.) This style of rhetoric should be familliar to anyone who's read arguments from the political left: If you're in favor of tax cuts, it must be because you are driven by greed, and choose to ignore or disobey Jesus. No other explanation is possible, apparently.
History is full of examples: FDR enacted massive taxes on the rich -- 100% at one point -- and poverty dragged on. In contrast, JFK enacted massive tax cuts -- and a booming economy soon followed. During the 1980s, I constantly heard Ronald Reagan's tax cuts had made the poor poorer and were decimating the middle class. But the truth turned out to look more like this... ![]() Note that the percentage of poor shrank, and everyone, including millions of the poorest, moved upward. Seemingly paradoxically, government income tax receipts also increased, rather than falling. And the same thing happened under Bush, just recently, with his two-stage tax cut -- where the wealthy didn't receive a tax cut at first and the economy didn't grow -- demonstrating that you had to include the investor class in the income tax reduction in order to stimulate the economy. (That should seem obvious, I would think.) If this is so, then the obvious correlary is that the liberal policy of relentlessly raising taxes harms poor people. If you are a liberal, and have been supporting these kinds of policies, then you have been harming, not helping the poor. If so: we all make mistakes, so don't beat yourself up too much about it. Simply try to do what is right in the face of the evidence you've been given. And if you think my data above is wrong, please help me see the error in my ways. Otherwise, the question is simply: Do you want to help the poor? Even if that means not harming the rich? Even if that means changing your mind? Even if that means voting for a party that you will be condemned and reviled for supporting? How willing are you to support policies which help the poor? p.s. That, to me, is the more interesting portion. I don't think it's obvious to all people. I don't want you to think I missed it. But I don't have the background to figure out if there are any confounding factors. Posted by: Ryan on September 13, 2006 12:28 AM I don't claim to know enough about economics to critically review the issue, but weren't Reagan and George W. Bush both huge deficit spenders? Doesn't Kenysian economics predict that deficit spending would increase consumption and boost an economy? Great point, Ryan -- an excellent question since many people will have the same thoughts. You're right: There was huge deficit spending in the 80s. (It was Reagan's deal with the Democrats who controlled the purse-strings in Congress: give me my military buildup and I'll give you your domestic spending.) So that's also something we must look at seriously. I think one of the clearest discreditations (new word alert!) of Keynsian economics was simply the great Depression, in which FDR did all kinds of Keynesian things -- often at the direct advice of Keynes -- including paying people to perform plays no one watched. "Until [the WPA program] was closed down by Congress in 1943, it was the largest employer in the country." [1] (Amazing, no?) Did it help? Not that anyone could notice. The oldest refutation I know of Keynesian policies predates Keyenes by over a hundred years. In his essay, What is Seen and What Is Not Seen Bastiat writes:
He has no problem with the expenditure if the purpose is to increase national security. But to improve the economy?
"Economic activity" is simply that which moves resources from lower to higher value. Ore becomes steel becomes motors becomes washing machines and wheelchairs. Government-sponsored work typically redirects both money and labor away from the maintenence and creation of wealth towards more useless activity, and and we become collectively poorer rather than enriched. That was the difference between the US and the USSR. It's stunningly simple. (Consider: Didn't the USSR boast full employment? I believe it was probably nearly true. Yet their elite lived below our middle-class level, the middle class lived in poverty and those we'll call "poor" were the tens of millions who starved to death.) I hope it doesn't strike you as blasphemous or unduly harsh to say that Keynes was deeply confused. I used to revere him (as I was taught to in college) but when I started really looking into economics, I found there was nothing there. Bastiat concludes:
Why not indeed? What Reagan bought with that buildup was the freedom of Poles, Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians, Czechs, Ukrainians, Romanians, (etc.) and the substantial Clinton-era "peace dividend." Not a booming economy. Posted by: Tim (Random Observations) on September 14, 2006 09:47 AM Thanks for the reply. It doesn't strike me as 'blasphemous' at all since I don't worship the man, or any economist for that matter. Lacking knowledge on a subject, I'm forced to reason by refering to "experts" which is not somthing I like to do. Regarding FDR, why was it that war seemed to pull the US from depression? Was it just that Europe's factories were bombed, meaning they had to rely on US factories for a time, resulting in an American boom? During the Great Depression, factories were still standing, but weren't running at full capacity, which was part of the reason for the depression, no? How would increasing investment help if existing factories already weren't going full bore? The Hoover took a lassiez faire approach to the Great Depression, even decreasing tax rates as you suggest. But that worked even less well than FDR's reforms. So why do so many people think a high savings rate is bad for the economy? Are they just misguided or trying to justify giving government money to their friends? Is it important to draw a distinction between a popular tendency for risk averse saving and risk tolerant investing in seeing if an economy will boom from tax cuts? Were people simply very risk averse after the stock market crash, so that no amount of tax cuts would stimulate investment? Would that help account for Hoover's probelms? Do you know if there are any counterexamples to Reagan's increase of both demand through spending and investment funded through debt? Ireland's economy is booming now, and they've cut their tax rates. Some give that credit for their recent success among many other things. But apparently they've also taken on more debt since their incomes started increasing? Odd trend, that booms are so consistently associated with increasing debt. Part of their success was due to foreign investment and what some have called a "race to the bottom" in terms of tax rates. Granted, I don't know how globalization would affect a national economy, outside notions of comparative advantage or colonialism. But is there some kind of economy that manages to run a genuine budget surplus and decrease public and private debt? How do they do it? Massive exports? Investment in R&D? Currently, Republicans control the whole of the government. If they increase domestic spending, it seems odd to blame it on the Democrats. After 9-11, Bush was encouraging Americans to go out and spend, not invest, right? So what playbook are they following? Of course, technophile that I am, I have a difficult time believing in "1985 dollars". My current computer would probably cost over $100,000 and a room to keep it in in 1985, not to mention a team of workers to assemble some kind of cluster. And I couldn't have bought a cell phone then for love or money. I can't believe that "1985 dollars" even beings to take that kind of innovation into account. But that would only weigh in favor of your argument, I'd think.
There were other crucial differences I can think of. For example, D'herlle, a scientist and advocate of phage therapy, wanted a girl that a powerful party member was also chasing after. The party member had him killed. That kind of lawlessness would not have been an option in a socialist society. The USSR was brutal to scientists who went against political doctrine, for instance Darwinian evolutionists who opposed Lysenkoism. Occasionally you have the government in the US using social funding to attack certain views. Deusberg had his NIH Outstanding Investigator grant recinded (unfairly) because he asserted publicly that HIV was not the cause of AIDS. UC Berkley where he had tenure was also quite harsh to him, doing everything they could to stymie his career short of firing him. But the ability to supress a person with dissenting views or subvert the law isn't nearly as great in a socialist leaning society as compared to a communist one. There were differences between the US and the USSR, even if economics is entirely ignored. Democratic capitalism is fairly contrasted with democratic socialism, not communism. Posted by: Ryan on September 14, 2006 02:00 PM
He went to Congress with a $160 million tax cut, coupled with a doubling of resources for public buildings and dams, highways and harbors. Urged the state governors to also increase their public works spending, though many failed to take any action. In order to pay for these and other government programs, Hoover agreed to one of the largest tax increases in American history. The Revenue Act of 1932 raised taxes on the highest incomes from 25% to 63%. The estate tax was doubled and corporate taxes were raised by almost 15%. Also, a "check tax" was included that placed a 2-cent tax (over 30 cents in today's dollars) on all bank checks. Economists William D. Lastrapes and George Selgin, in The Check Tax: Fiscal Folly and The Great Monetary Contraction (Journal of Economic History, 57(4), December 1997, 859-78), conclude that the check tax was "an important contributing factor to that period's severe monetary contraction." Franklin D. Roosevelt blasted the Republican incumbent for spending and taxing too much, increasing national debt, raising tariffs and blocking trade, as well as placing millions on the dole of the government. Roosevelt attacked Hoover for "reckless and extravagant" spending, of thinking "that we ought to center control of everything in Washington as rapidly as possible," and of leading "the greatest spending administration in peacetime in all of history." Roosevelt's running mate, John Nance Garner, accused the Republican of "leading the country down the path of socialism". These policies pale beside the more drastic steps taken later as part of the New Deal. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Hoover Posted by: Ryan on September 14, 2006 09:15 PM To put it more directly, If Reagan had not relied on deficit spending, his tax cuts would have been next to impossible, correct? Could we agree then that an economy funded through deficit spending will, in the short term, perform differently than one where a government taxes first and spends second? And that the economy under Reagan's would seem to be an example of the first? Correct me if I'm wrong here. It might be easier to think about what happens when you lower the interest rate on loans; you encourage investment, you discourage savings and you also encourage people to take on debt. And that stimulates the economy. Right? My question is whether deficit spending during the Reagan administration had an effect similar to (but not superior to) lowering interest rates (which was also done); It encouraged (government) debt, it encouraged (government) spending, and it encouraged at least some degree of investment through, say, 'trickle up economics' (new word alert) as well as government R&D. Whether that effect was intended or not, why shouldn't it be taken into account in interpreting the Reagan economy? In Bush's post 9-11 economy he deliberately encouraged people to take on debt and consume. Perhaps they should have invested instead, but it suggests that Bush, at least, is following a deliberate path here. (And Reagan lowered interest rates as well, which would also impact income as well as encourage debt. ) Bastiat does not address keynesian economics because he does not address deficit spending, but assumes that taxes are levied and then spent. Bastiat does not address kenysian economics because he describes actions taken on a continuous basis rather than temporary actions taken in response to a cyclical downturn in the economy, whose effects will eventually have to be 'paid off'. I agree that spending government money on things like plays is a bad idea. I'm open to the possibility that government investment in things like the hydroelectric dams built during the Roosevelt administration was a bad idea as well, viewed in the long term. The assumption I'm getting from your first reply is that the deficit spending of the Reagan administration (some of which, at least, involved millitary R&D, with civilain applications) had no impact whatsoever on the resulting economic boom, or else had a negative short-term impact and could thus be ignored. The assumption might be true, but it needs support. Or else the graph of wealth needs to account for the effects of that deficit spending on income. Posted by: Ryan on September 19, 2006 02:55 AM Franklin D. Roosevelt blasted the Republican incumbent for spending and taxing too much, increasing national debt, raising tariffs and blocking trade, as well as placing millions on the dole of the government... I see you are learning some history, Ryan! Isn't that interesting? What frustrates me so much is that it is the exact opposite of the lies we were taught in school. FDR didn't "get us through" the depression, he kept us in it. And the line about Hoover being "laissez-faire" is an equally important deception: it's as if they wish to deprive us of the facts of history, so that we'll be unable to draw correct conclusions about what policies to support for a good future. Now, when I see depictions of the Great Depression, with people out of work, full of despair, starving begging for even a bite to eat, families split up by poverty -- I think "FDR did this." True, we would have had a 2-year recession under Hoover. But FDR turned into the hellish cesspool of unrelenting despair and poverty it became. And to think he's still praised for it in the public schools! Next we'll study Woodrow Wilson's impact the world... Posted by: Tim (Random Observations) on September 20, 2006 07:31 PM Add your two cents...
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I don't claim to know enough about economics to critically review the issue, but weren't Reagan and George W. Bush both huge deficit spenders? Doesn't Kenysian economics predict that deficit spending would increase consumption and boost an economy?
What would be interesting is if Reagan or Bush could have bolstered the economy through tax cuts while simultaneously decreasing government spending enough to pay for their tax cuts. But neither did that. And both left it to a later generation (or at least the next economic boom) for the government to pay down the debt.
Theirs may be very well be responsible short term economic policy, designed to pull an economy out of depression. But continual deficit spending is not good long term policy. And reduction of government spending, while a good idea, would likely cool the economy.
Posted by: Ryan on September 13, 2006 12:21 AM