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My Political Coke vs Pepsi Taste Test

As both of my regular readers are aware, many of my friends and associates have a decidedly liberal bent. You're probably also aware that I'm often frustrated, thinking "how can anyone think that?" but not able to get a reasonable answer from the other side.

Today, I overheard two friends of that persuasion (rather audibly) discussing the subprime meltdown, incredulous that some people were claiming it had something to do with the CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) and the Clinton administration, and similarly incredulous at the idea that McCain and Republicans had forseen this, and tried to head it off -- but Democrats had killed that. I don't feel I'm especially well-informed here, but the little bits I'd seen seemed to indicate they were wrong. So I wondered what their counter-arguments might be: did they know something I didn't?

So I politely asked if they didn't mind explaining their objections to me -- I wasn't trying to trap them or anything -- I just wanted to understand the objections. I don't think the ensuing discussion, and the bit of research we did, went especially well for the various counterpoints they were offering, but that's not the point at the moment...

They described to me their view of the holdup: That "their side" was afraid of trusting Paulson with a huge wad of cash (no strings attached), that they didn't want the taxpayer to end up footing the bill, and that they wanted to make sure that the CEOs of the failed companies didn't end up making a killing. Everyone in the room knew I was generally "on the other side" but I said, quite bluntly, that their objections sounded quite sensible to me.

They said something (I forget precisely) which knowingly implied I should probably be supporting "their side." I agreed that if that's where the Democrats were, then I was supporting Democrats on this one.

Look, I try to be honest, not partisan.

Despite what Depeche Mode would have you believe, a policy of truth is usually the best option. Tonight I did a bit of research into that plan. Guess what I discovered?

It's not a Democratic plan at all -- it's a Republican one, commissioned by House Minority leader Boehner (R-OH), and created by Eric Cantor (R-VA). Those principles are all found in this document [PDF], released by house GOP leaders (source). Some of the most conservative members of Congress are backing it. Pelosi seems to be adopting the plan and working with House Republicans because, according to Time, she doesn't want to stick her neck out with a plan of her own -- if it didn't work, they'd be responsible. So it's of those odd times when Nancy Pelosi is echoing objections first voiced by Club for Growth and Newt Gingrich.

So that's very funny to me.

To explain my title, it's as if two people in a room were asked if they preferred Coke (R) or Pepsi (D). They were given samples, only with the labels switched. The one who claimed he liked Coke suddenly said he liked the Pepsi this time. And the one who claimed he liked the Pepsi said the Pepsi was still great, and this was why the Coke drinker should get on board and prefer Pepsi.

Only the "Pepsi" turns out to have been Coke. :-)

It pays to be principled, not partisan.

Comments

I frequently count myself as extremely fortunate to have such wise friends as y'all. (No pun intended in Ryan's case.)


Mike: Peoples political opinions may be formed in much the same manner as their preferences to brands.

I agree entirely, Michael: and the same may be true of religion, family*, etc. Instead of adhering to a fixed set of ethics, we sometimes get backed into defending "our team" when they, or at least that choice, really ought to be condemned.

(* I often think of the mom who defends a criminal child -- sometimes even a serial killer -- because he's "family". I suspect such people are limited in their understanding of moral options: It's possible love someone without agreeing with each thing they do (or anything much they do, really), but if that's how you process your own valuation, its natural to project that outwards.)


Ryan: Is there any reason for us to believe that forcing banks to buy insurance (basically after the fact) would negate the problems of moral hazard rather than exacerbate them?

Ryan, if I'm reading you right here, in some ways, you've become even more conservative that I would have thought. I suspect your concern here is entirely justified.

There are several "virtual" (a few are not being openly elicited) positions on the table. At the right end is the position you're hinting at: (1) perhaps the government shouldn't do anything to prop these institutions up. Moving "leftward" along the scale, I see (2) the House Republican position next: demand more insurance, and at least keep the taxpayers cash further at bay. Next is the Bush position: (3) Toss a lot of cash at the situation and "nationalize" the failed portion of the debt. Then over on the left, we have the positions I think Reid, Obama, and Pelosi hold (and the MSM narrative obviously implies) but are afraid to elicit openly before a haven't-yet-voted electorate: (4) that these businesses (or all businesses) need to be tightly regulated, CEO salaries capped (after all, this was caused by "deregulation" and "capitalism") -- and, oh, by the way (and quite the nonsequitur from my POV) let's make sure we don't get any oil from shale etc. On the far left is (5) the idea that we should nationalize or ban the whole system, and possibly even every business.

So given those five or so options (I might have missed one, or there may be hybrids) I'm currently torn between the first three.

I'm deep in the financial industry right now, and I can understand the arguments that things need to be kept moving smoothly, and that the government caused this problem in the first place, so perhaps the government should take some role in solving it. (After all, most of these institutions wouldn't have had the bad debt in the first place without Clinton-era policies forcing and encouraging them to acquire it.)

Yet I've also long understood that you get lots of whatever you pay for or sponsor: the S&L crisis of the 1980s being another such example, as well as the recent (last decade) Japanese bank bailouts, where I thought the Japanese government made a very poor choice.


Institutions were loaning money without adequate collateral, without adequate assessment of income (why weren't tax returns used? This seems like willful negligence on the part of the lending institutions) and without even checking for citizenship in some cases, from what I've heard.

When you've got the government on your back, ready to fine you (thanks to Clinton's upgraded Community Reinvestment Act), and you've got Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (staffed with many of the same individuals) busy creating an artificial market for risky loans, it moves that behavior from unthinkable to a seemingly-sensible proposition, at least in the short run.

Ryan, the situation you describe is precisely what the architects of the current system were seeking. They wanted to make sure people who had bad credit and inadequate collateral could now obtain loans. And undoubtedly, they "meant well". But economic laws are a bit like physics in that they don't really care about such things as motives.


But both parties have very dirty hands. Bush actively supported this huge over extension of credit without adequate documentation.

I'd like to learn more about that. When, and in what regard?


And I haven't heard anything coming out of either party yet which actually addresses the issues which caused this crisis. Meaning it will happen again in a decade or two.

I only partially agree here: Republicans attempted to, as I understand it, actually reform the FMs in 2005, but they didn't have the political ability to carry through those reforms. (And don't now either.) Yes, Bush could be pushing that angle more. But you have to remember he's a lame duck at the moment, and facing a hostile Congress: he may be viewing it (quite reasonably) as first important to plug the hole in the boat, and not get that mixed up in the important-but-less-urgent question of trying to prevent future hull breaches.

That's not an unreasonable course of action, at least described at that level, IMO.

Posted by: Tim (Random Observations) on September 28, 2008 10:18 AM

Congrats on getting my last name, btw. You have a gift for research, I guess. (or looked at my email, maybe.)

I haven't really looked through the 2005 reforms to the CRA, incidentally, so I don't know what they all involve. I may be missing something crucial there. I don't have much time so some quick notes;

The Senate Banking Committee estimted that as of 2000, as a result of CRA, such groups had received $9.5 billion in services and salaries.
from wikipedia

The thing about subprime loans- while there may have been resistance to legislation like CRA, there was a push from within the mortgage industry to fund subprime loans. They were profitable upfront. There were a number of complaints from within the mortgage industry that assessments were inflated, for instance, in order to get a specific loan approved. So subprime loans seemed to be funded by companies like Countrywide and their affiliated fronts far in excess of what would be expected given a rational and properly informed market.

One problem related to Clinton's CRA which I just read but seems legit wasn't in relation to the need to fund minority loans, but instead that it reduced the amount of cash an agency needed to have onhand to back a loan. That seems a reasonable criticism of Clinton's CRA.


Related rule changes gave Fannie and Freddie extraordinary leverage, allowing them to hold just 2.5% of capital to back their investments, vs. 10% for banks. By 2007, Fannie and Freddie owned or guaranteed nearly half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.[5] Due to massive financial losses, on September 7, 2008 the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the conservatorship of the FHFA.[10]

Here's one speech Bush gave regarding the mortgage industry. I couldn't find the one I heard originally where he says something to the tune of "there's no reason that a first time homebuyer can't have a house that's just as nice as ... someone wealthier" or something to that tune

October 2002


You see, we want everybody in America to own their own home. That's what we want. ...

I set an ambitious goal. It's one that I believe we can achieve. It's a clear goal, that by the end of this decade we'll increase the number of minority homeowners by at least 5.5 million families. ...

And so we've called upon Congress to set up what's called the American Dream Down Payment Fund, which will provide financial grants to local governments to help first-time home buyers who qualify to make the down payment on their home. If a down payment is a problem, there's a way we can address that. And when Congress funds the program, this should help 200,000 new families over the next five years become first-time home buyers. ...

Secondly, affordable housing is a problem in many neighborhoods, particularly inner-city neighborhoods. You may -- we may have qualified home buyers, but if there's no home to buy, this initiative isn't going anywhere. And so one of the things that we're going to -- that I'm doing is proposing a single-family affordable housing credit to encourage the construction of single-family homes in neighborhoods where affordable housing is scarce. (Applause.)

And, of course, one of the larger obstacles to minority homeownership is financing, is the ability to have their dream financed. Right now, we have a program that all of you are familiar with, maybe our fellow Americans are, and that's what they call a Section 8 housing program, that provides billions of dollars in vouchers to help low-income Americans with their rent. It encourages leasing. We think it's important that we use those vouchers, that federal money to help low-income Americans go from being somebody who leases to somebody who owns; that we use the Section 8 program to not only help with down payment, but to help with continuing monthly mortgage payments after they're into their new home. It is a -- it is a way to help us meet this dream of 5.5 million additional families owning their home.

I'm also going to encourage the lending industry to develop a mortgage market so that this script, these vouchers, can regularly be used as a source of payment to provide more capital to lenders, who can then help more families move from rental housing into houses of their own.

Last June, I issued a challenge to everyone involved in the housing industry to help increase the number of minority families to be home owners. And what I'm talking about, I'm talking about your bankers and your brokers and developers, as well as members of faith-based community and community programs. And the response to the home owners challenge has been very strong and very gratifying. Twenty-two public and private partners have signed up to help meet our national goal. Partners in the mortgage finance industry are encouraging homeownership by purchasing more loans made by banks to African Americans, Hispanics and other minorities.

Freddie Mac recently began 25 initiatives around the country to dismantle barriers and create greater opportunities for homeownership. One of the programs is designed to help deserving families who have bad credit histories to qualify for homeownership loans.



link

Posted by: Ryan W. on September 28, 2008 09:38 PM

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