A lot of people, including those far up north, are remarking that Obama's first-round Danish knockout means he's no longer "king of the world", or words to that effect. Indeed: there's no doubt this is a blow to his credibility.

A few have suggested this reflects overconfidence in his powers of persuasion. Probably fair, also.

But I'm not seeing others note what seems clearest to me: That this is the most fundamental, clear sign so far that Obama is seriously out of touch with reality. (This is not a gratuitous partisan insult, sadly, though I wish it were.) In turn, this speaks volumes about his current and future strategies and judgment (or lack thereof) regarding the economy, Iran, Russia, and many, many other far more important issues.

A few (including myself) suspected perhaps (some nearly insisted) that surely Chicago's bid was a done deal already, or at least something fairly close to it — and Obama was just coming in for the pro-forma crowning ceremony. Not be unduly cynical (O Chicago, how could I impugn thee?), but why would a president risk his clout, reputation, and global standing on something which was three times as likely to be against you as for you?

We were wrong. Incredibly wrong. Stunningly, we now know, this is a guy who's willing to risk a 1-in-4 shot and bet his entire credibility on it. It apparently wasn't rigged, and he really had no clue that such odds would be an incredibly bad gamble to take.

Do I need to decorate that with gratuitous caps and exclamation points?

This is very serious stuff. This is my watershed moment. I knew he was clueless economically (most the country is, including a good chunk of Republicans, so that's not particularly damning), but I had no idea he couldn't understand simple odds, not much more than your average blackjack player intuitively understands.

One in four. You don't bet your credibility on that.

Imagine such a person making decisions about going into battle? Or, um, a nuclear standoff? (Not like that could happen.) I now believe he has no idea what he's doing. He doesn't understand how the world works. He doesn't understand you can't solve everything with a teleprompter. He doesn't understand simple mathematics.

And oh, how I hope I'm wrong. He is my president, and the specter of being right here fills me with concern, not glee.

UPDATE: New York Times: "A sense of stunned bewilderment suffused Air Force One and the White House. Only after the defeat did many advisers ask questions about the byzantine politics of the Olympic committee." Yeah, that. Obama apparently actually IS the caricature they imagined Bush to be. And yet Olympic politics and corruption are nothing compared to the United Nations, which he recently touted as the curative tonic for all the world's ailments.

The upside is that nobody was seriously harmed, and he'll probably learn from this. Hope so, but as so many say, the Presidency isn't exactly the ideal job in which to be first learning one's most basic lessons about how the world works. I'm reminded of Carter's shock, near the end of his term, when the Russians rolled into Afghanistan; Carter had completely misunderstood their intentions and motivations, whereas his critics had been right on the mark. Carter still hasn't learned, but I can still hope for better for Barack.

This associate editor ("I've written for The Nation, Politico, The New Republic, Mother Jones, and the NY Daily News...") is still absolutely sure it's a brilliantly clever, wheels-within-wheels ploy, subtly designed by the gigantic brain which is Barack Obama. He's not sure what the clever, secret plan is, but he's sure there's one in there somewhere:

Obama: He's smarter than you think

.... yet again — we're in a moment when the political chops of Barack Obama are being severely underestimated. What's understood as a loss now will, most likely, come to be seen as a neutral or even an advantageous turn of events for him....

Did Barack Obama want Chicago to win? No one's a mind reader, but we do know one thing about this guy: he's got an acute sense of politics. And politically, having Chicago host the Olympics in 2016 was close to a sure-fire loser... If Chicago had won, the RNC, RSCC and other right-wing apparatchicks [sic] would run countless advertisements alleging amorphous connections betweeen [sic] the President and the developers who would likely benefit from the Olympics.

Wow, that Obama sure is brilliant! He flew to Copenhagen to make sure Chicago would, um, lose the Olympic bid, in order to thwart the, um, Republicans, cause they would... uh... run ads!!!! Yeah, that's it! Now they can't run any ads noting Obama's failures. Like this one. Um, wait...

For him, this is the best of both worlds: he's demonstrated his loyalty to his most important boosters, but has avoided the scandals that would most likely befall a Chicago Olympics. The loss itself will be forgotten by the American public by the time the weekend is over.

... or at least by his fellow Obama cultists.

But, um, what about those Iranians? Surely they must be similarly impressed. ("Hey Afsar! Don't mess with Obama! Remember how he made everyone think he wanted Chicago to win the Olympic bid? Boy, did he run circles around us!" "Ah, Pejman, you crack me up!")

Must be nice, having so many non-falsifiable beliefs.

This is only a theory, of course. But, in the four-plus years Obama has been on the national scene, I've learned a lesson. Never bet against the man on political grounds. Substantively, he's a different story — he's made his share of mistakes. But his political record is virtually unblemished. Somehow I don't think we just witnessed the first one.

Let me repeat his credentials again: "I've written for The Nation, Politico, The New Republic, Mother Jones, and the NY Daily News..."

That makes sense of a lot of things, doesn't it?