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Global Warmingists are in full-blown spin control. Let's take a look at what is being said; examine the calibre of argument. Guardian's George Monbiot:
Monbiot has good motivations. In contrast, every global warming skeptic is an intentional liar, disinterested in truth. Obligatory ad hominem fallacy: Check!
Citation? None provided of course. One prominent example would be lovely. Most people I've read say the e-mails demonstrate a willingness to distort and hide data. And indeed, they have. As these were the main scientists behind the UN's assessment, their motives and ethics indeed should also, reasonably, cast some doubt on the results.
Monbiot oddly links to an article which undermines his own contention, noting that the temperature record he cites "draws heavily on CRU analysis. CRU supplied all the land temperature data." Monbiot also doesn't mention the HARRY_README.TXT file, which shows said land temperature data was apparently totally unreliable and irreproducible. Nor does he mention the CRU's odd "loss" of all known historical temperature data when asked to release it. Nor subsequent evidence that CRU and NOAA cherry-picked Russian and Canadian land station data. The article he links also admits: "The Government is attempting to stop the Met Office from carrying out the re-examination, arguing that it would be seized upon by climate change sceptics." So Monbiot cites this article as proof of the reliability of the historical temperature record, but the article its implies it's probably fried? Has he read his own best evidence?
Which glaciers? The most recent revelation is that the many of the "shirking" glaciers in question most certainly aren't. Which sea ice? Actual scientific records show it's roughly holding steady since 1979.
Which "responses"? Examples please?
Ah. No other theory makes sense, so it MUST have been CO2. Boy, that's science in action, isn't it? Never mind that global CO2 was hardly being affected by industrial sources back in 1850; also never mind recent evidence pointing to no net change in atmospheric CO2 since 1850 (article recently renamed to make conclusion seem more ambiguous) .
1. The implicit logic here is "I can find someone who lied against global warming, therefore it's true"? Huh? I thought he opposed such fallacies. 2. Please, by all means, read the examples. It's pretty tepid stuff: a coal company wants to "reposition global warming as theory"! (Al Gore or UN officials would never do the converse, right?) A single AGW-skeptical scientist received some funding from an electric power consortium? (No pro-AGW scientist has ever received money for supporting global warming, surely? — how about every single one with a government grant?) A think tank published a list of global-warming-sceptics which included some incorrect names (yet the UN's list of signatories has the same problem — scientists who disagree, like Dr. Chris Landsea, cannot get their names removed.) And finally, horror of horrors, a man of some influence in the Bush administration, skeptical of AGW, was found to have indirect links to Exxon! (Did Monbiot even notice that Jeffery Immelt, CEO of GE, who stands to make billions from confirming global warming — is also one of Obama's top advisors? No, that's nothing compared to a minor Bush official's influence.) As I imply with the counter-examples noted above, the opposite cases are far more pervasive and lucrative — if Monbiot thinks such influences can corrupt a scientific position, he should be overwhelmed by the temptations which could lead one to a pro-warming stance. But it seems he's utterly blind to such. 3. None of this rises to the level of supposedly objective scientists — whose work supposedly forms the entire world's "consensus" position — destroying, losing, and hiding inconvenient evidence. Elsewhere, Monbiot charges:
Um, I'm not "ignoring" such evidence at all. I just don't see how some petition having a few false signatories on it does anything to negate the head of the UN's IPCC taking money to say that glaciers were melting when, in fact, they weren't. The later sheds doubt on a specific "finding", the former does nothing of the sort.
The four examples Monbiot gave were fairly obscure; I follow this debate pretty closely, and I'd never heard of any of said incidents, much less been influenced by them before they were "exposed". And the behavior he cites is mostly ethical (e.g. there's nothing immoral about a company wanting to argue its case in public) so I'm not sure what's to condemn in most cases. And, contrary to his "no accountability" claim, the case he cited with a clear, intentional ethical conflict — the Bush administration official — was actually fired. (Again, does he read his own stuff?) Guardian's Fred Pearce offers a few more attempts:
He's right that "hide the decline", in context, referred specifically and only to truncating a series of tree-ring data, so that the resulting graph wouldn't show a downward trend after 1961. But, um, shouldn't that alone be a troubling indication of cherry-picking? Not for a true believer, apparently. I don't think most the media, pro- or con-, realizes this distinction (and thus aren't "lying" but are merely mistaken) — which may not matter much anyway, given the other subterfuges revealed in the letters, and subsequent exposures of IPCC fraud...
Um, no: technically, what we have is an absolute drop in temperature (normally termed "cooling"!) which some like to interpret (wrongly) as a "slackening of the warming trend." If you have a peak in 1998, then by definition, temperatures have fallen since then. This isn't some odd usage specific to global warming: it the the normal meaning of all the words we're using here. Fred Pearce wishes to avoid such, apparently.
Um, no, again. The shocking point is that Trenberth was privately admitting there's cooling, and admitting it doesn't agree with the models; it wasn't predicted at all. This, in turn, casts significant doubt on the reliability of the touted computer models which supposedly "prove" future warming trends. Which would indeed certainly "undermine" their position — I don't see what's dishonest about that at all.
Oh! Yes, I see now. That's the usual usage: when you "contain" a phenomenon, it means to understand it! Like when the CDC says we should "contain" an outbreak of disease, they mean they only want to "understand" it. Someone should really inform the dictionary people, as they seem to think it means "keep within limits"; "to prevent from advancing". (Stupid dictionary people!) And never mind that Mann's now-widely-discredited hockey-stick graph is a textbook example of getting rid of unwanted effects: "Jan Esper, David Frank and Robert Wilson (EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 2004) further argued that the fatal flaw with Mann, Bradley and Hughes' temperature reconstruction is its incorrect representation of longer-term trends. They observed that the statistical methods used inappropriately remove trends over long time periods." No, nothing to see here! Move along.
Oh, Mann said that he wasn't working to hide the medieval warming trend? Gee, I guess that settles it completely! Forget completely what independent research demonstrated, above. How can you argue with steel, vice-like logic like this? Case closed! I'm sorry I ever entertained a single doubt! Too bad "deniers" aren't afforded the same assumptions of good faith and intentions. If you're arguing that the decline is small relative to the total amount of sea ice or that (based on current trends) the decrease is small relative to the total, well okay. Yes, that's exactly the point. Isn't that what "roughly" means?: as you say, ignoring changes which are "small relative to the total"? If I say a wall or picture is "roughly level", do I mean it has no variations at all? (Total what, by the way? Extent? Measured time? I meant it was roughly steady over most the depicted area, not that it was completely event-free. Obviously, there are several events depicted, just as there can be perturbations in a "roughly flat" surface.)
Where did I say there were no downward (nor upward) trends depicted anywhere in the graph? What does "roughly" mean to you?
Here, Monbiot cites a loss of sea ice as unambiguous evidence for all that. Does it support such a contention? Look at the graph: Recall global temperature rose from the late 70's, allegedly peaked in 1998, and has fallen a bit since then. In contrast, the graph indicates seasonal sea ice area remains approximately level from '79 until 2004, drops a bit at 2005, rises a bit for a few years after that until 2008, and then drops a little bit in the last two years. Compare against Mann's now-largely-discredited hockey stick graph. I'm hard pressed to see any similarity. Sea ice levels remained roughly stable even as temperature was allegedly skyrocketing; the very recent perturbations you note happen alongside a recorded fall in global temperatures.
I agree. Our difference here, I think, is that you're talking about a "trend": you're taking that zero line (an average) and projecting it out over the whole graph, perhaps even into the future. So you see the red line, more locally, as gently sloping downward at the end, and think that means it's not "roughly level." I'm not doing that, and think the technique's invalid, especially given the scope of the graph, and that we don't know any of the inputs. (We've got thirty years of data, out of billions, and you're trying to pick a "trend" out of 5-10 years of that? That's like trying to decode the meaning of the human heartbeat from 5 minutes of data.) I see a relatively stable plateau from '79 to '05, and then some oscillations after that. They look like they're headed up at the moment, but I wouldn't bet either way on it. Said bumps, in and of themselves, aren't that different, if you compare them to others (like the first ones, '79-81). To me, that looks relatively flat. (Albeit with a scape on the right edge.) I know, probably for Monbiot (and you?) the last several years are a big deal, hugely important for creating a "trend" to extend. I can see that. But why? As I point out above, these are actually cooler years. All they're telling us is that we don't understand sea ice very well. That said, I probably shouldn't have used said graph to attempt to answer Monbiot's argument of sea ice loss. He might have only meant that sea ice was clearly lost from 2006-'08, but has regrown somewhat since then. But that seems a rather shortsighted argument for AGW, given larger context noted above.
As I said above, I think it's actually fairly stable within the shown interval, but the tendency to draw such a comparison, and apply such an expectation to the data, illustrates my concern. Consider this 1922 newspaper clipping concerning arctic sea ice. Or consider a graph of temperature with the Holocene Optimum — or even an ice age or two thrown in. Climate is NOT a closed system, much less "operating within statistical control limit". Ever. Yes, local trends and islands of stability can be observed, but the whole system isn't comparable to the behavior Demming might expect of a well-run assembly line. That such a comparison would even occur to someone's mind is very odd. Yet AGW activists apparently do want us to think the world used to be a finely-tune clockwork, only recently (since 1850 onward) thrown into wild malfunction by this horrid new invasive species, Homo Capitalist Technologicus. Instead, you'll see an ice-free arctic ocean in 1922. And then a massive increase in ice. And then a relatively stable period during a time when temperature are supposedly rising. Then a slight loss and some fluctuations during a time when you'd expect more ice. George Monbiot draws tidy conclusions from all that (if he knows it and thinks about it at all). He thinks we clearly should, too. Posted by: Tim (Random Observations) on February 6, 2010 09:57 AM Total what, by the way? If I say a wall or picture is "roughly level", do I mean it has no variations at all? In this instance, given that the subject of the disagreement is in regards to long term trends, I'd say that 'roughly level' would translate to local variations (summer to winter and year to year) but no long term difference. To be clear, I'm not married to (or even arguing for) any particular conclusion regarding trends or causes. If you said "the small downward trend seen in the graph is likely to not extend into the future for x, y and z reasons, solar cycles, el nino, medieval warm period, CRU yadda yadda" I'd say "fine." We've got thirty years of data, out of billions, and you're trying to pick a "trend" out of 5-10 years of that? The scope of the graph is not sufficient to prove a trend, certainly. The question for me is whether it's sufficient to disprove a decrease in sea ice which seems to be how you were using it, given that the right of the graph at the bottom seems significantly lower than the left. and that we don't know any of the inputs. Climate is NOT a closed system, much less "operating within statistical control limit". Ever. Then we agree here. (Yes, there should be an 's' on limit. I wrote quickly.) Posted by: Ryan W. on February 6, 2010 11:57 AM The scope of the graph is not sufficient to prove a trend, certainly. The question for me is whether it's sufficient to disprove a decrease in sea ice which seems to be how you were using it, given that the right of the graph at the bottom seems significantly lower than the left. I think that's a fair point, and agree I shouldn't have used it for that purpose. There HAS been a recent event which resulted in loss of sea ice, but which we'd both agree can't be characterized yet, clearly as a "trend". A better point to make would have been that we don't yet know if it's a trend, or that the ice loss doesn't at all seem to correlate with an alleged rise in CO2 levels, etc.
Posted by: Tim (Random Observations) on February 9, 2010 02:10 PM My views of catastrophic global warming have changed fairly sharply since a few years ago when I believed the economic consequences of the 'solution' may not match the harms caused by the problem but still believed the scientific data being put forward was essentially correct. While I think the letters from the CRU did seem to support the scientists' sincere belief in their hypothesis, it's hard for me, at times, to differentiate who is simply deluding themselves, who doesn't understand what's going on and who is outright lying. The peer review process seems to have failed and I'm basically in a situation where I'm highly skeptical of all data and models regarding climatology. Triple that for news reports. I've gotten into more than a few discussions with friends about the problems in climatological research. I won't dispute that CO2 will have some small effect on global climate. It has to, given its absorption spectra. (Though perhaps increased plant growth will compensate? Have you ever looked at a leaf through an IR sensor? They're bright white.) But the tropospheric warming required for catastrophic scenarios seems quite questionable at this point, which would put a damper on the doomsayers if they understood it and believed it. And the news coverage of the topic has been willing to attribute changes to 'global warming' that seemed much more likely to be attributed to other more local effects. Posted by: Ryan W. on February 9, 2010 08:30 PM Add your two cents...
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Actual scientific records show it's roughly holding steady since 1979.
As mentioned when you pose this graph previously, the graph shows a downward trend of sea ice since 1979.
2005 and 2006 show the only dips below 15 m sq.km on the chart for daily sea ice area.
2003-2010 has one minimum for global daily sea ice area above 16 m sq. km, two at that point, and 5 of 8 lows below 16 m sq.km.
in contrast
1979-86 has 1 of 8 above 16 m sq.km, 6 at that point and one below.
If you're arguing that the decline is small relative to the total amount of sea ice or that (based on current trends) the decrease is small relative to the total, well okay. But I'm not sure how you could look at this data and say there's no downward trend.
Look at how much white space is above the red line measuring global sea ice anomaly for 2003-2010 (The majority of it.) Look at how much white space is above the red line for 1979-1986 (Barely one year out of the entire span, if you add them together.)
As Demming might say, the span shown does not represent a system operating within statistical control limit.
Posted by: Ryan W. on February 4, 2010 10:07 AM